Intraday “report”

Closed all FSLR/POT long calls, eased on many other long calls, /trimmed /CL long from Friday, added QID. GOOG puts, SRS

“The moment of truth”

[posted on http://evilspeculator.com/?p=9220&success&dsq=12684693#comment-12684693] the moment of truth is upon us fellow ratburgers! If following equities will not be able to CLOSE higher than referenced levels before noon - I'll be all over long puts BIDU @303 AMZN 84.5 GOOG 428 and long calls SRS if holds 19.70 SPX 912 is important, but even more important SPX 915.80 on WEEKLY CLOSE (/es 914.75 today is important as well) good luck - we are going to need it today (unless most of you are about to desert short train :)

When to hold and when to fold?

Today will give us an idea where market is going to go. /ES 914.75 area action is the key.

Aggs looking good! (POT),(AGU),(IPI)

Opened few long calls positions today for IPI and AGU  (Sep/Oct) – if in fact they are starting W5 UP – potential targets are almost double. (in addition to POT long calls from yesterday).  I

Watching the yellow brick..eh trendline

S&P500 Videos

SPX Weekly   SPX Daily

The week it was…

Quick memory trip first – this is what I wrote on Wednesday, July 01, 2009: “ Good riddance of Queen’s Taxes! Are you ready for another leg down on the market? Are you listening to what Dollar is telling you? Two trading days? Right after 4th of July weekend? “ Now, let see how that worked out Not too chubby, not at all – except that market participants saw my post and decided to front run me (joking), but all market did – just added to my profits on the short side… WHY am I writing this? AM I tooting my horn? I would not care less about publicizing my good trades – I do not sell services, I do not make money on occasional Reuters publications, I have dismantled my “private site” (too much work and obligations for few extra grands per month), I am not even managing OTM (“Other people money”) right now. The sole purpose is to explain to John Q. Public that retail trader in the bear market cannot be reactive, there are no well defined trends, there are no warnings, there are no second chances, there is no “lets do that and if it does not work – we’ll fix it later” (OH! I hated that statement in my “previous” programming life – some dimwitted idiot who caused the problem on the first place when it is time to take responsibility for his/her mistakes – the best they could do was just say: “It is not a time for a blame now, lets fix it”. Damn corrupted brain dead idiots, flawed system where people try to capitalize on low probability positive outcomes and never take time to do things “the right way” from the start. Oh well – one of the best news I had last year – and there were lots of those – a lot of big shots who were buying “AAA rated at deep discount” are foreclosing on their houses and looking for a job now and finally they hear the truth from their “other half”: “YOU are an IDIOT!” No – I am not talking about Kneale – he is just a mediocre puppet) Okey-dokey… lets answer one sarcastic email I received after I announced my “long term vacation” from blogging. Here is a short version of that email: “You are acting like prima donna, trying to attract attention to your useless market calls etc etc etc”. The answer would be (thou I don’t really HAVE to reply to someone who is still on my mailing list while badmouthing me …why is that person still on the mailing list?) – I may decide to do whatever I feel like I want to do right now – it is not a job, I, as oppose to “cubicle slaves” am REALLY free to do whatever I want to do whenever I want to do that. Now – why I cut my “blogging vacation” short? Because of the many “other kind” of emails: “Over the years I've met some interesting investors and you rank with the best. I like your renegade style and will never forget your call, just about to the day, that the oil bubble would burst almost a year ago today. Damn, I wish I shorted it . I wish you good luck and want to thank you for your hard work. Bill” [“Bill” is a patient reader and generous donor since February 2008] “I hope everything will be well with you and your family, I am going to miss your musings a lot, you are one of the very few traders I still follow who was able to stay the course no matter what media and other “legendary” traders were mumbling. I endlessly appreciate your efforts and I learned A LOT from you, being realistic [skeptical] among many other things, not even speaking of your not so traditional charting techniques Evelyn” [“Evelyn” is a patient reader and generous donor since March 2007] (I’ve never managed to personally thank those people who understand amount of hard work and dedication it takes to try to predict the market – I am using this opportunity and would like to say “THANK YOU, thank you very much” without Elvis’ intonations :) DavidDT ) THAT is one of the reasons WHY I started blogging on the first place – trading is THE MOST DIFFICULT occupation and I thought I had something to offer that might be helpful to fellow traders. Alright – now back to business. I will be going over a lot of charts this weekend, I have a feeling that next week will be anything but dull and I’d love to use that trading opportunity before market descent into REAL doldrums of the summer. I will post some thoughts on the dollar, commodities and general market over the weekend. There was a change made to mailing lists setup – posts will NOT be mailed out, sorry, you will have read it at one of my blogs [I WILL send notification when new post is up] DavidDT

It is all starting to make a lot of sense now - on D-WAVE

Multiple timeframes have resolved counts and I am kind of pleased to see that my "presumptions" (due to incomplete minimum requirements for some waves counts) were not that far off. Here what we have on S&P500 cash index weekly. There are 2 alternate waves, but based on RSU staying firmly under 60 (and most of the time under 40 as well), it is a major wave down (RED ). My prior thought were that 38% would be sufficient for W4 retrace – I did not have daily wave charted due to lack of minimum required conditions. Now daily is all set and it plays well with weekly. To finish with weekly – I’d say that now it is reasonable to expect W4 to run its normal course and extend to 1120-1250 area. As you can see on daily there 2 alternate waves as well and here RSI serves our purpose well – plus major down (RED) is in corrective final stages and presents no interest to me. GREEN… Major UP is in W2 down which is reasonable to expect to extend down to 740-780 area – and it is “slight” disappointment to me – without seeing formed daily W2 I expected more of a surprise with less downside, I thought 847 (which by the way is still a 38% retrace) – would suffice..well – it still might and I am not discounting that possibility as of yet. Hourly…that would be tough call if major UP (green) would not have been in final corrective stages, so we’ll take RED one instead. it plays well with my prior 875 pullback(which already happened) and then up, thou W4 has not been defined yet (no minimum count exists yet) – so if tomorrow SPX will fail to set lower than today’s low and proceeds to 900+ area – we will know that 907-914 is around the corner. As you recall 914.75 is my magic number and I will be VERY unhappy to see SPX above it on daily close. So, to summarize: Up to 907-914, down to 740-780, up 1120-1250 and then “Armageddon upon us” – but timing wise it is highly unlikely to happen this year. (As you recall monthly wave count calls for “this is just a beginning of the end” scenario.  Just to make it clear – I am no bear I am no bull I don’t really give a UFO about “where” market is going, I just want to be, in this computerized world of “What GS allowed to do none else allowed to do”, on the RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRADE)

The art of chart (SPX)

You all saw that chart many times, nothing from the past is removed (except for some not anymore needed drawings), just new drawings are being added as time passes by. /ES S&P500 Index Futures Roadblocks   I’d expect SPX to be at 847 level by next Tuesday July 14th IF if will fail to close inside prior (invalidated as of today un-perfected daily buy signal during ongoing weekly perfected sell setup) risk zone. That “yellow circle” which was on this chart for almost 2 weeks – this is where we are now. Check. Not advocating that “TA RULES!!!”, just saying that there are some people who don’t know how to use it. P.S. I do a lot of INTRADAY posting on DISQUS – shall anyone care for such things as calling top in OIL on June 11th 2009 or “Short GS at 149-150 on June 29th 2009 – you are welcome to subscribe. (Surely you will have to deal with some “noise” – I have lots of friends :) P.P.S. Do everyone a favor – send Dennis Kneale email and express your deepest sympathy – that is how we treat “special” people (instead of telling them the truth), it surely not fault of his, he was just born that way.

(AMGN) Trade Quiz #2

As a follow up to  (AMGN) Trade Quiz here is the next question: “Do you know what AMGN price is now?” Good – so we all made a lot of money.    Unless you prefer to watch CNBC’s own Cramer who came up with yet another idea to force you to to borrow what is left of your money to bankrupt government on disadvantageous for you terms – VERY disadvantageous terms.  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1173522516 Well, I guess John Q. Public deserves to lose all his money if he still watches CNBC.

Must see TV

Well, not really – I would never say that about CNBC, but David Rosenberg deserves to be watched. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174022453&play=1 highly recommended for those delusional who still think that unemployment rate is 9.5%

Predictable action

So far market behaves the way chart is laying it out, this week has to be very interesting – I am anxious to find out where bounce will take place 875 or it will proceed to 847 Too bad we have not been entertained with CONgress/Senate sounds and visions, so as a substitute for every single event – you might want to watch this.

/ES S&P500 Index Futures Roadblocks

[AKA Support/Resistance levels] I would expect overnight/day session low of 877 with following move up to 903.25 level. Worth noting that as of right now /ES is right at 23.8% Fib Ret. Chart is crowded, but does what it suppose to do – provides guidance on possible reversal points. PPH (and biotech in few days) - short on weekly (and a lot of big pharma names look prime for substantial downside. Longer term: SPX - I think this is what is going to happen it will close few days in the rows in the area of 890.35 or just proceeds directly to one of two possible scenarios: 1. down to 875.2 OR 2. down to 847.2 (most likely) where (and it has to be watched WHEN) - it will proceed to 1020 area and this is where the next big shorting opportunity will present itself. Latest trade signals With Goldman Sachs allegedly having one hell of a ride with Quant Trading Code disappearance market action might just get a little more organized.

Good riddance of Queen’s Taxes!

I’d like to use this opportunity to stress out one more time that: “People have to be careful what they wish for”. May be Queen’s taxes were better…who knows…we will yet to see to what extent we’ll be taxed for generations to come. Are you ready? Are you? Nuh, not for taxes – you’ve been ready and agreed for a long time now..and already got use to “Bend over” command..from managers, government, everyone…and you are happy to show the middle finger when none is looking proudly whispering “I am an American! It is free country!” Are you ready for another leg down on the market?  Are you listening to what Dollar is telling you? Two trading days? Right after 4th of July weekend? $DXY - confirming move up within 2 trading days with max downside of 78.88     No matter on what timeframe I look I don't see any short term bearishness in $. Here is an hourly chart - perfect retrace to 76% and I think it will take UUP as high as 25+     P.S. Nice that people catching up on identifying market idiots…the question is – when idiots will have some decency to run and hide?  And… people who are so smart now, Faber for one, where were they when it started and we tried to warn and were thrown rotten eggs at?  Now Faber is SMART?  Reminds me of Blodget who wrote the book in jail “How I f..d American Investors AKA bagholders while doing what Merrill wanted me to do”. Come on – bring up Gasparino – I want to hear: “Fuld is a stand up guy.  I know him.. I trust him…Grease anyone?” (Above statements are NOT exact and were “translated” for ease of reading) Faber – why did not you speak up like I and a lot of us did BACK in August 2008? Or 2007? 2006? Would not make you money, huh?  You ARE smart…   http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1158038818/code/cnbcplayershare What if EVERYONE will stop watching CNBC for just 3 days? Will it be enough to put it out of business? What - no more DITECH commercials???  The answer I’d REALLY like to know: “Who is worse – CNBC or people who watch it?” Time to get to “vacation cave” (it is about 43 feet long and weather is beeeeaaaauuutiful)

Missing piece of a puzzle (S&P500 D-Wave)

One of the readers asked me in email: “Was that you intentionally omitted monthly or even yearly charts because they totally contradicted to your longer term bearish view?” On the contrary – longer term charts make out (USA) perspective even glimmer. Here you go – S&P500 Monthly (index was originated in 1949) Here is zoomed version of the same chart, it clearly shows that we either in final stages of 60 years old bull market (WA of major UP) finished, we are in WB up right now (not confirmed yet) OR we just satisfied minimum requirements for Major DOWN W1 and if so – God help us.

Surfing down D-Wave (Video)

TTW 20090618 D WAVE SPX

Where we are and where we are going

Yesterday’s price range worked admirably ( I wrote: “Tomorrow I would expect SPX to drop to 903 area and then bounce to at least 912..and we’ll take it from there…” ).. Looking at 30 minutes S&P500 Index (SPX) we shall note that W4 down of major UP touched on intraday basis 76.4% projection and bounced right off that level. Accordingly, I expect tomorrow morning that level to be tested again and W5 up will start tomorrow/Friday.  Will new highs be set?  Possibly, most likely 965-980, but not necessary – my time horizon for majority of the trades I do is from few hours to few days, unless I expect fundamental price direction shift (and not “drifting” which we’ll most likely be witnessing for a while)